Joe's Premium Subscription: Apple Podcasts Spotify 0:00 Nashville Meeting 1:14 Chart Review 4:49 Trump/Russia/Fertilizer 7:31 Flash Sales 10:10 Export Sales 14:04 Brazil Crop Update 15:59 Drought Monitor and River Levels 🌱 Fertilizer Markets Fertilizer stocks surged Thursday after Ukrainian drones struck two fertilizer plants in western Russia. While the facilities represent a small share of global capacity, the market is now pricing in higher geopolitical risk and potential supply chain disruptions. Earlier this week, President Trump threatened “very severe tariffs” on Canadian fertilizer if needed to boost US production. Canada is the largest supplier of potash to the US, making this a key risk point for US growers. For many US corn farmers, fertilizer is the 3rd largest expense behind land and machinery. Nitrogen (N): ~65–75% of total fertilizer costs Potash (K): ~10–20% of total fertilizer costs Last month, the Trump administration lifted tariffs on most fertilizer imports, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP, and MAP. See fertilizer charts below 📊 🌎 Export Flash Sales Soybeans: 264,000 mt to China (25/26) 266,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26) Corn: 186,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26) See updated China Soybean Purchase Tracker below 📉 Tracker may be imperfect due to the government shutdown and delayed USDA data releases. 📦 Weekly Export Sales (Catch-Up Report) Corn: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, well above expectations Mexico was the top buyer Soybeans: Near the low end of expectations but improved week-over-week Germany was the largest buyer Small China cancellation Wheat: Sales beat expectations sharply Unknown destinations led buying See charts below 📊 🇧🇷 South America Update Conab trimmed Brazil’s soybean crop forecast to 177.1 mmt Still a record crop if realized Cut reflects dry November weather and some replanting About 90% planted as of early December First exportable supplies expected early January Total exports estimated at 112 mmt See Brazil & Argentina weather maps below 🌦️ 🌦️ US Drought Monitor Corn Belt saw cold temps with most moisture falling as snow Drought mostly unchanged, but worsened in parts of MO and IN High Plains dryness ticked higher in SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma Areas Experiencing Drought: 🌽 Corn: 31% 🌱 Soybeans: 31% 🌾 Winter Wheat: 34% 🌾 Spring Wheat: 16% 🐄 Cattle: 25%