Dylan Patel is the founder of SemiAnalysis, a research & analysis company specializing in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware. Nathan Lambert is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of a blog on AI called Interconnects. Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc. *Transcript:* *CONTACT LEX:* *Feedback* - give feedback to Lex: *AMA* - submit questions, videos or call-in: *Hiring* - join our team: *Other* - other ways to get in touch: *EPISODE LINKS:* Dylan's X: SemiAnalysis: Nathan's X: Nathan's Blog: Nathan's Podcast: Nathan's Website: Nathan's YouTube: @natolambert Nathan's Book: *SPONSORS:* To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts: *Invideo AI:* AI video generator. Go to *GitHub:* Developer platform and AI code editor. Go to *Shopify:* Sell stuff online. Go to *NetSuite:* Business management software. Go to *AG1:* All-in-one daily nutrition drinks. Go to *OUTLINE:* 0:00 - Introduction 3:33 - DeepSeek-R1 and DeepSeek-V3 25:07 - Low cost of training 51:25 - DeepSeek compute cluster 58:57 - Export controls on GPUs to China 1:09:16 - AGI timeline 1:18:41 - China's manufacturing capacity 1:26:36 - Cold war with China 1:31:05 - TSMC and Taiwan 1:54:44 - Best GPUs for AI 2:09:36 - Why DeepSeek is so cheap 2:22:55 - Espionage 2:31:57 - Censorship 2:44:52 - Andrej Karpathy and magic of RL 2:55:23 - OpenAI o3-mini vs DeepSeek r1 3:14:31 - NVIDIA 3:18:58 - GPU smuggling 3:25:36 - DeepSeek training on OpenAI data 3:36:04 - AI megaclusters 4:11:26 - Who wins the race to AGI? 4:21:39 - AI agents 4:30:21 - Programming and AI 4:37:49 - Open source 4:47:01 - Stargate 4:54:30 - Future of AI *PODCAST LINKS:* - Podcast Website: - Apple Podcasts: - Spotify: - RSS: - Podcast Playlist: - Clips Channel: *SOCIAL LINKS:* - X: - Instagram: - TikTok: @lexfridman - LinkedIn: - Facebook: - Patreon: - Telegram: - Reddit: